2023世界交通运输大会 傲杀除草       投稿须知
WTC平行论坛 ④ | 港口群与智慧管理论坛Port Group and Intelligent Management
来源:世界交通运输大会WTC 时间:2022-10-17

2022世界交通运输大会

港口群与智慧管理论坛

一、论坛背景

作为WTC2022的平行论坛之一,本论坛主要涉及港口群智慧运营的各方面,重点关注港口和航运企业在应对气候变化下的减灾、航线规划、港口治理及风险管理等领域。上述研究方向是近年来在交通运输,特别是水运行业内的研究热点,具有较好的时效性和较高的关注度。

二、论坛总览

时间(Time):2022年11月06日  08:30-12:00

地点(Location):武汉中国光谷科技会展中心三层会议厅6-2(Function6-2)

主题(Theme)

港口群智慧化

The intelligence of Port Group

主持人(Moderator)

郑士源 

上海海事大学

Zheng Shiyuan

Shanghai Maritime University

三、组织机构

主办单位  Host

WTC水上运输学部

WTC Waterborne Transportation

上海海事大学

Shanghai Maritime University

长安大学

Chang'an University

四、论坛议程

08:30  Subsidy on Transport Adaptation Investment: Modeling Decisions under Incomplete Information and Ambiguity

报告人:符啸文 香港理工大学

Reporter:Fu Xiaowen The Hong Kong Polytechnic University

08:50  The Impacts of Port Governance Reform on Port Competition in China

报告人:杨忠振 宁波大学

Reporter:Yang Zhongzhen Nibo University

09:10  Seaport Adaptation to Climate Change-related Disasters under Coopetition with Dry Port

报告人:蒋昌敏 对外经济贸易大学

Reporter:Jiang Changmin University of International Business and Economics

09:30  Does Information Publicity of Ports’ Adaptation Investments Improve Welfare?

报告人:王焜 对外经济贸易大学

Reporter:Wang Kun University of International Business and Economics

09:50  Adapting to the Impacts Posed by Climate Change: Applying Climate Change Risk Indicator (CCRI) Framework in a Multi-modal Transport System

报告人:王恬妮 上海海事大学

Reporter:Wang Tianni Shanghai Maritime University

10:10  Capacity investing in heterogeneous ports in the post-epidemic era

报告人:董岗 上海海事大学

Reporter:Dong Gang Shanghai Maritime University

10:30  茶歇  Tea Break

11:00  冰区破冰船护航行为及跟驰模型研究

 A Multi-ship Following Model for Icebreaker Convoy Operations in Icecovered Waters

报告人:张伟斌 南京理工大学

Reporter:Zhang Weibin Nanjing University of Science & Technology

11:20  Container Shipping Market Turbulence: The Interaction Effect between Exogenous Shocks and Shipping Alliances

报告人:郑士源 上海海事大学

Reporter:Zheng Shiyuan Shanghai Maritime University

11:40  休会

五、专家介绍

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郑士源 上海海事大学

Zheng Shiyuan Shanghai Maritime University

专家简介(Introduction)

郑士源,男,汉族,博士,现任上海海事大学交通运输学院教授,研究方向为交通运输经济分析,担任全国交通院校工作委员会第一届委员,世界交通大会(WTC)水运学部技术委员会委员等职。主持和参与多项国家自然科学基金和社会科学基金项目。出版专著4本,发表学术论文70余篇,其中SCI/SSCI论文30篇,发表在Transportation Research Part B,Part C,Part D,Part E,International Journal of Production Economics,Maritime Policy and Management等交通领域的权威期刊上。

Dr. Shiyuan Zheng is a Professor in the School of Transportation, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai, China. He obtained PhD degree from Antai School of Management, Shanghai Jiaotong University, China. His research interests include transport emission control and adaptation to climate change-related disaster, port governance, competition and cooperation. Dr. Zheng is Vice-Chairman of the Water Transportation Department of the World Transport Convention. He has published about 70 articles on academic journals including Transportation Research Part B/C/D/E. He was awarded the “Best Paper Award” at the World Transport Convention (WTC) in 2018 and 2021, and one of 8 shortlisted in the Annual Best Manuscript award of Maritime Policy and Management in 2017 and 2018. He has also provided consultancy work for the Ministry of Transport and many ports in China.

报告题目(Report)

Container Shipping Market Turbulence: The Interaction Effect between Exogenous Shocks and Shipping Alliances

报告精华(Report Summary)

Frequent and dramatic container shipping market turbulences have been observed in recent decades, causing concerns of shipping stakeholders and the governments around the world. While the exogenous shocks like economic recession and pandemic are attributed for such turbulence, the evolving shipping market structure change with the formation of shipping alliance could play a mediating role. In this paper, we examine the interaction between the exogenous shocks (from demand or supply sides), such as the economic recessions and pandemic, and the shipping market alliances. A theoretical model is firstly derived to generate theoretical conclusions. An empirical study is then conducted using real shipping market data to verify the theoretical predictions. Specifically, our analytical results suggest that the shipping alliance could enlarge (or reduce, respectively) the volatility of the shipping freight rates when the shipping market demand (or shipping fuel price, respectively) is stochastic. Meanwhile, the shipping alliance always leads to lower volatility of the port charges. We also find that the alliance-induced cost saving has no impacts on (or increases, respectively) the volatility differences of both the port charges and the shipping freights after shipping carriers forming the alliance, when the shipping demand (or shipping fuel price, respectively) is stochastic. A difference-in-differences type econometric method is implemented, which verifies the analytical conclusions, based on the panel data of the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) and trade in the container shipping routes spanning from 2000 to 2021.

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符啸文 香港理工大学

Fu Xiaowen The Hong Kong Polytechnic University

专家简介(Introduction)

符啸文博士是香港理工大学工业与系统工程系教授,工程学院副院长。他的主要研究方向为运输经济与管理,涵盖的领域包括竞争政策和政府管制,生产率比较计算,运输需求模型和产业组织研究等。这些研究的主要对象包括航空和航海产业。符教授是超过20个课题的主负责人,研究方向包括生产率研究,网络规划发展,航空公司机场垂直协议,企业竞争,产品差异化研究,运输需求分析,开放天空和航空自由化等。符教授至今发表了90多篇期刊论文,主编了7个期刊特刊。他是Transport Policy 期刊的副主编,多个期刊的编委,同时是系列书籍 “Advances in Airlines Economics” (Emerald) 的副主编和该系列第7卷的主编。他是香港理工大学行为与知识工程研究院总监,国际航空运输研究协会(科研)副主席,英国航空研究所(科研)副主席、联合国贸易和发展会议产能指数技术和统计工作组成员,香港地方志专家小组(航空卷目)成员, 悉尼大学商学院荣誉教授。

Dr. Xiaowen Fu is a Professor of Engineering Management in the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University. He received a BSc Degree in Applied Economics and a BSc Degree in Computer Science from the Shanghai Jiaotong University, China; a MBs Degree in Information Management from the Nanyang Technological University, Singapore; a PhD degree in the cross fields of Transport and Logistics + Business Strategy and Policy from the Sauder School of Business, the University of British Columbia in Canada. Prior to joining ISE, he worked as faculty members in the University of Sydney Business School, the University of Sydney, and Faculty of Business, the Hong Kong Polytechnic University. His main research area is transport and logistics studies which covers issues such as competition policy and government regulation, efficiency benchmarking, transport demand modelling and industrial organization. He has been the principal investigator of more than 20 research grants, the guest editor of 6 journal special issues, is currently on the editorial board of Transportation Research – Part E, and is an editor of the journal of Transport Policy, associate editor of the book series “Advances in Airlines Economics”.

报告题目(Report)

Subsidy on Transport Adaptation Investment: Modeling Decisions under Incomplete Information and Ambiguity

报告精华(Report Summary)

This paper models subsidy policies on transport facility’s adaptation to climate-change related disasters. We consider a transport facility (an airport or a seaport) that is in a vertical structure with an upstream facility operator and a few downstream carriers. The exact probability of disaster damage level is privately known by the facility operator, while the government has incomplete information and only knows the probability distribution with ambiguity. Modeling results suggest that such incomplete information and ambiguity in many cases allow the facility operator to secure information rent, and make the facility output, adaptation investment and social welfare downwardly distorted (i.e., less than the levels under complete information). The model explains how two countervailing effects, the “pooling effect” and the “agency cost effect,” jointly determine the downward distortions on market outcomes and how welfare-maximizing subsidy policy should be adjusted under alternative scenarios. With multiple important factors considered simultaneously, our model can serve as a comprehensive benchmark for the testing, validation and extension of simplified analysis. The analytical results offer a mixed message on adaptation policy: on the one hand, the complex structure of optimal subsidy design cautions the challenges in government intervention in the presence of incomplete information and ambiguity. On the other hand, our study provides new support to adaptation subsidy and policies promoting adaptation effectiveness and carrier competition in the downstream market, because these measures alleviate the distortions caused by incomplete information and ambiguity in general.

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杨忠振 宁波大学

Yang Zhongzhen Nibo University

专家简介(Introduction)

教授/博士,男,1964年5月出生。国务院学位委员会(交通运输工程学科)学科评议组成员,辽宁省百千万人才工程百人层次入选者。主要从事交通运输设施规划、交通运用管理、区域物流与综合运输系统设计、港口规划与生产调度优化管理、综合运输网络分析、城市物流、交通环境负荷和商业设施规划选址等方面的研究。http://hyxy.nbu.edu.cn/info/1033/10299.htm

报告题目(Report)

The Impacts of Port Governance Reform on Port Competition in China

报告精华(Report Summary)

Taking China’s “one province, one port” reform as study object, the variation of port competition intensity with the changes in the degree of port spatial dispersion and the number of ports is analyzed. The differences of spatial distribution of port competition intensities in two port governance contexts are compared, and the impacts, advantages and shortcomings of port governance reform are revealed. To this end, the definition of port competition intensity is given and the node degree of network is used to represent the competition level among multiple ports in a city. The impacts of changes in port numbers and density on port competition intensity (hereinafter given as PCI) is analyzed, and PCI’s spatial distributions under OCOP (one city, one port) mode and OPOP (one province, one port) modes are measured. The results show that, under OPOP mode, the hinterland of a provincial core port is fitly defined and the PCI scores in 84% of hinterland cities will decline. The results of this study provide a theoretical justification for OPOP reforms, and help to clarify the motivations behind such reform in China.

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蒋昌敏 对外经济贸易大学

Jiang Changmin University of International Business and Economics

专家简介(Introduction)

蒋昌敏,对外经济贸易大学教授,博士生导师,中国交通运输经济研究中心主任,国家级人才项目入选者,曾在加拿大U15联盟的曼尼托巴大学获得终身副教授职称。2007年北京大学本科毕业,2008年香港城市大学硕士毕业,2014年获得加拿大英属哥伦比亚大学博士学位。主要研究领域为交通运输经济与政策。至今已经正式发表2本著作和45篇被SCI/SSCI收录的高质量期刊论文,包括12篇交通运输领域国际顶级期刊Transportation Research Part B。担任交通运输领域国际知名期刊Transportation Research Part A, Transportation Research Part D以及Transport Policy等客座编辑及/或编委。主持加拿大“社会科学与人文研究委员会基金(SSHRC)”三项,主持“国家自然科学青年基金”一项,参与“国家社科重大项目”等基金项目多项。研究成果被广泛引用及认可,共被国内外学者Google Scholar引用超过1100次,曾被SSCI期刊Transport Policy及Journal of Air Transport Management的论文经过严格学术方法论证后获评“高铁相关研究全球成果最丰盛的十位学者”及“机场容量管理相关研究全球最巨影响力的十五篇学术论文”等荣誉。获得大量学术研究奖励,包括加拿大曼尼托巴省最高研究奖Falconer Emerging Researcher Rh Award for Outstanding Contributions to Scholarship and Research,以及International Transportation Economics Association (ITEA) Annual Conference, Air Transport Research Society (ATRS)World Conference,International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME) Annual Conference等高级别国际学术大会的最佳论文奖。长期为加拿大Red Leaf Capital,Fair Ventures等企业提供战略咨询服务。多次接受加拿大国家广播电视公司,中国中央电视台国际频道等媒体采访。

Dr. Changmin Jiang is a Professor in the School of International Trade and Economics and the Director of the China Center for Transport Economic Research (CCTER) at the University of International Business and Economics (UIBE) in Beijing, China.  Before joining UIBE, Dr. Jiang was a tenured Associate Professor in the Asper School of Business and the Director of the Transport Institute at the University of Manitoba in Winnipeg, Canada. His research involves various issues and aspects in the transportation and supply chain management sectors, particularly the economic and policy analysis. He pays particular attention to the application of new technologies, such as AI and Blockchain, to transportation and supply chain. So far Dr. Jiang has published 2 books and more than 40 peer-review academic papers, most of which appear in first-tier journals that are recognized as top in different fields. He’s also the principal investigator of 6 national grants from Canada and China, and the winner of multiple research and teaching awards. Other than academic research, Dr. Jiang is also experienced in industry collaboration, serving as a consultant for multiple companies and organizations, including Univest Securities, Red Leaf Capital, Fair Ventures and the BC Road Builders and Heavy Construction Association. Dr. Jiang has been interviewed by multiple media such as CBC from Canada and CGTN from China.

报告题目(Report)

Seaport Adaptation to Climate Change-related Disasters under Coopetition with Dry Port

报告精华(Report Summary)

Climate change has caused increasing frequency and strength of extreme weather events along the coastal areas, seriously threatening the seaport operations and causing cargo damages. Major seaports around the world have been actively investing in the adaptation measures. The rise of inland dry ports in recent years has also re-shaped the international freight transport market faced by the seaports. The dry ports resulted in the intermodal competition between railway and maritime freight transport for the overlapped hinterland, while they also create new sea-rail integrated service to expand the seaports’ markets (i.e., the coopetition). Unlike the seaport, the dry port is however subject to much less disaster threat. This study thus proposes an economic model to examine the impact of such coopetition on the adaptation investment of the seaport and also the resultant market outcomes. We also analyze how the effect of the disaster uncertainty (Knightain uncertainty) on the seaport adaptation investment can be moderated by this seaport-dry port coopetition. Moreover, the optimal government subsidy on the seaport adaptation investment is also derived under such coopetition, and is also benchmarked to the case without the presence of the dry port. The policy and managerial implications are also discussed.

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王焜 对外经济贸易大学

Wang Kun University of International Business and Economics

专家简介(Introduction)

博士,对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院副教授,SSCI期刊Transport Policy副主编 (JCR经济学1区期刊),世界交通运输研究大会(WCTRS)科学委员会委员,WCTRS常设供应链管理协会副主席,世界交通大会(WTC)水运委员会委员,SSCI期刊Journal of Air Transport Management客座主编。研究领域为 “运输经济学”、“运输政策分析”,特别是“航空运输产业”政策分析。在国际一流SSCI期刊共发表学术论文50余篇,包括4篇交通运输领域顶级期刊Transportation Research Part B,10篇交通运输领域一流期刊Transportation Research Part A; 1篇产业经济学领域一流期刊International Journal of Industrial Organization。完成政策报告(内参)3篇(其中一篇获得副总理以上国家领导人批示;一篇获交通部副部长批示),主持和参与国家自科基金2项,主持教育部项目1项,参与国家社科基金重大项目1项。同时为世界经合组织(OECD)、北京市政府、海南海口市政府、厦门机场、曼彻斯特机场、韩国交通研究所提供政策和运营咨询服务。

Dr. Kun Wang is an Associate Professor in the School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics (UIBE), Beijing, China. He obtained PhD degree from Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia (UBC), Canada. His research interests include air transport economics and policy, aviation and high-speed rail (HSR) competition and cooperation, and international shipping investment in emission control and adaptation to climate change-related disaster. Dr. Wang is Editor of Transport Policy, Vice-Chairman of SIG B1 (Supply Chain Management) of WCTRS, Committee Member of the Maritime Economy and Policy stream of the World Transport Convention. Dr. Wang has published more than 50 articles on journals including “Transportation Research Part B”, “Transportation Research Part A”, “International Journal of Industrial Organization”, “Spatial Economic Analysis”, “Journal of Transport Geography”. He was recently awarded the “Best Paper Award (Topic Area A)” at the 2019 WCTRS conference at Mumbai, and also won the “Best Graduate Student Paper” award at the US Transportation Research Forum (TRF) 58th Annual Meeting in Chicago.

报告题目(Report)

Does Information Publicity of Ports’ Adaptation Investments Improve Welfare?

报告精华(Report Summary)

This paper develops an integrated economic model to examine two competing ports’ investment in adaptation to climate-change disasters. The ports have asymmetric information on the actual disaster damage. In deciding on adaptation investment, the “leader” port is a better-informed first mover and the “follower” port is a less-informed follower. The government is able to acquire and verify port adaptation information and chooses whether to publicize it (publicity policy) or keep it confidential (confidentiality policy). If the information is publicized, the leader port initiates a signaling game in which it makes a decision first, and the follower acts after observing the leader’s decision. Under the confidentiality policy, both ports make their decisions simultaneously. Our analysis shows the following. 1) Under the publicity policy, the leader port does not adopt a pooling strategy; rather, it determines its adaptation and output based on true information on disaster damage (i.e., it implements a separating equilibrium). 2) The publicity policy has two effects: it increases the leader’s throughput while decreasing the follower’s throughput (i.e., the throughput effect), and it helps rationalize the follower’s adaptation investment by making more up-to-date disaster information available (i.e., the adaptation investment effect). 3) When the degree of inter-port competition is high, the publicity policy improves social welfare by increasing the total throughput of the two ports (i.e., an overall positive throughput effect) and rationalizes the follower’s adaptation investment (i.e., a positive adaptation investment effect). Otherwise, it reduces the total throughput of the ports (i.e., an overall negative throughput effect). This negative throughput effect may outweigh the positive adaptation investment effect, thereby reducing social welfare. These analytical results suggest that the government needs to promote inter-port competition if it decides to publicize port adaptation information. Finally, we find that the joint implementation of publicity and subsidy policies could result in excessive adaptation investment, leading to social welfare loss. Our study illustrates the important effects of information asymmetry on adaptation investment and has policy implications in the presence of port competition and government subsidy.

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王恬妮 上海海事大学

Wang Tianni Shanghai Maritime University

专家简介(Introduction)

王恬妮,上海海事大学交通运输学院讲师。英国利物浦约翰·摩尔斯大学管理研究专业博士。自2019年起担任世界交通运输大会水运部秘书长,协助组织并参与了第22届中国科协年会、主持了国际青年学者线上论坛等大型会议。曾获2021年“上海浦江人才”称号,并于2018年国际物流项目会议上获得由前英国副首相约翰·普雷斯科特男爵亲自颁发的“最佳青年学者”奖。目前研究主要涵盖了交通运输、物流供应链管理、气候变化及适应性规划等领域。主要解决了包括中国、在加拿大和英国在内多地区的气候变化风险及不确定性,以及包括铁路、公路及港口等交通运输系统的安全规划等问题。至今已发表国际知名SCIE/SSCI检索学术期刊七篇(五篇一区)、书章2篇及国内外会议文章十余篇。

Tianni Wang is an assistant professor at the College of Transport & Communications of Shanghai Maritime University, with a PhD degree in Management Studies at Liverpool John Moores University in the UK. Since 2019, she has served as the secretary of the water transport department of the World transportation Congress (WTC), organized and participated in the 22nd annual meeting of China Association for science and technology, and presided over large-scale international conferences such as the International Young Scholars online forum. She is also the owner of “Pujiang Talent” of Shanghai, China in 2021 and the “Young Researcher” prize awarded by John Prescott, the previous Deputy Prime Minister of the UK at the 2018 International Conference on Project Logistics (PROLOG). Tianni's current research covers transportation, logistics and supply chain management, climate change and adaptation planning. Key issues that she has been tackling include risks and uncertainties posed by climate change on ports, roads and railways, and multi-regional transport safety and adaptation planning in China, Canada and the UK. So far, she has published 7 SCIE/SSCI papers (5 in JCR tier 1), 2 book chapters and over 10 conference papers.

报告题目(Report)

Adapting to the Impacts Posed by Climate Change: Applying Climate Change Risk Indicator (CCRI) Framework in a Multi-modal Transport System

报告精华(Report Summary)

Climate change has threatened the infrastructure, operation, policy-making and other pivotal aspects of transport systems with the accelerating pace of extreme weather events. While a considerable amount of research and best practices have been conducted for transport adaptation to climate change impacts, there is still a wide gap in systematic assessment of climate risks on all-around transport modes (i.e. road, rail, seaport and airport) without conducting a comprehensive review and developing a scientific framework. Being said so, this paper aims to conduct a critical review of the studies on how the transport sector adapts to the impacts posed by climate change since the dawn of the 21st century. To support climate risk assessment in diverse comprehensive transport systems, it develops a Climate Change Risk Indicator (CCRI) framework and applies to the case of British transport network. Focusing on a multi-modal transport system, this study offers researchers and practitioners an invaluable overview of climate adaptation research with the latest tendency and empirical insights. Meanwhile, the developed CCRI framework elaborates a referable tool that enables decision-makers to employ objective data to realise quantitative risk analysis for rational transport adaptation planning.

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董岗 上海海事大学

Dong Gang Shanghai Maritime University

专家简介(Introduction)

董岗,男,1979年9月生,安徽太和人,上海海事大学经济管理学院教授,博士生导师。复旦大学博士,上海交通大学博士后,加拿大约克大学访问学者。主要研究方向:港航物流与供应链管理,主持和参与国家自然科学基金项目5项、省部级项目20余项;在《管理科学学报》《Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review》等中外文权威期刊发表研究论文。

Gang Dong, male, born in September 1979, Taihe County, Anhui Province. He is currently a professor and doctorate supervisor of School of Economics and Management, Shanghai Maritime University, received the PhD degree from Fudan University and carried out postdoctorial research at Shanghai Jiaotong University, then was offered a position as adjunct professor at York University, Canada. His main research areas are port and shipping logistics and supply chain management, related research were funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China, Decision-making Consulting Foundation of The Development Research Center of Shanghai Municipal People's Government; research papers were published in Journals of Management Sciences in China, Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review.

报告题目(Report)

Capacity investing in heterogeneous ports in the post-epidemic era

报告精华(Report Summary)

针对后疫情时代特征,本文通过构建异质性和竞争性航运链博弈模型,研究不同合谋结构下集装箱港口和班轮公司的最优产能投资策略。研究结果表明,集装箱港口装卸作业费和班轮运力均都与港口设计吞吐能力相关,尤其是受到不同合谋结构的密切影响。

In the post COVID-19 pandemic era, this paper developed a two-stage game model to study the optimal capacity investing strategies of the container ports and liner companies under four different structures of collusion in two heterogeneous and competitive shipping chains. The results show that the THC of container port and the freight of liner are both highly related to the designed capacity of the former, particularly affected by the different structures of collusion. 

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张伟斌 南京理工大学

Zhang Weibin Nanjing University of Science & Technology

专家简介(Introduction)

南京理工大学,教授,博导,电光学院无线通信与传感网研究所副所长,江苏省智能交通信息感知与数据分析工程实验室副主任。发表SCI及中文高水平论文40多篇。

Dr. Weibin Zhang is a professor from Nanjing University of Science and Technology. He serves as the deputy director of the Institute of Wireless Communication and Sensor Networks, School of Electronic and Optical Engineering, and the deputy director of Intelligent Transportation Information Perception and Data Analysis Engineering Laboratory of the Jiangsu. He has published more than 40 peer-reviewed papers.

报告题目(Report)

冰区破冰船护航行为及跟驰模型研究

A Multi-ship Following Model for Icebreaker Convoy Operations in Icecovered Waters

报告精华(Report Summary)

本研究面向海冰条件下船舶护航作业的安全距离和安全速度,提出了一种用于破冰船护航作业的多船跟随模型。使用来自AIS的数据和海冰模型数据,以及破冰船护航作业的经验数据对模型参数进行校准。该模型根据冰的厚度、类型和抗弯强度,以及引导护航的破冰船的主要尺寸来确定冰阻,并用最大安全航行速度评估船舶在海冰中航行的能力。所提出的模型可以为破冰船护航作业提供理论参考,并可用于船舶模拟器中进行破冰船的航行仿真。

This study proposes a model of multi-ship following for icebreaker convoy operations in continuous icebreaking conditions, using modelling principles combined with considerations of safe distance and safe speed in ship convoy operations in ice conditions. The model parameters are calibrated with empirical data from actual icebreaker convoy operations, using data from the Automatic Identification System (AIS) and sea ice model data. The model determines ice resistance according to ice thickness, type, and bending strength, and the main dimensions of the icebreaker leading the convoy. The maximum safe navigable speed is used to assess the following ships’ ability to sail in sea ice. The new proposed model can provide a theoretical reference for icebreaker convoy operations, can have practical use in ship simulators to improve training. 

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